The Reliance pack made many investors happy this year! A stock like RNRL gave a whopping 660% returns over the year, reports CNBC-TV18. Reliance Capital gave 326% returns, while Reliance Energy gained 311% over the year. Reliance Infra shot up 291% in 2007. Reliance Petroleum gave 249% and Adlabs, 236% returns over the year. Reliance Industries gained 128% and Reliance Communications, 55% over 2007.
It was record gains for the market in 2007. For the Sensex it was 47%, Nifty 53%, BSE Smallcaps 93%, CNX Midcaps 75%, BSE Metal Index 121%, BSE Capital Goods 116%, BSE Oil&Gas 114%, BSE Consumer Durables 85%, BSE PSU 70%, BSE Bankex 61%, BSE FMCG 18%, BSE Healthcare 14% and BSE Auto 1% and BSE IT was down 14%.
2007 was certainly a year that set many records! The year saw the highest number of 1000-pt marks in a single year ever, reports CNBC-TV18. Also, the Sensex crossed six 1000-point milestones versus five in 2005. The year also saw the minimum number of days taken to cover 1000 points by the Sensex. In fact, the BSE 30-share index covered a 1000-point milestone in just five trading sessions. The market also saw record FII flows in a single month ($5.85 billion in July) and also in a single year (over 17 billion).
End the year with a BIG Smile on your face and welcome 2008 with a BIG Guffaw!!!!! Ha ha ha, may the laughter roll on!!
Monday, December 31, 2007
Profit from the telecom war!
The raging telecom war between the CDMA operators and the GSM ones recently took to the skies - literally! The guidelines recommended by the Department of Technology's (DoT) technical arm, the Telecom Engineering Centre (TEC), were much stricter than the current spectrum allocation policy in place. The guidelines, in effect, suggested that a much larger subscriber base would be needed for the allocation of additional spectrum. The GSM operators were infuriated at the decision as this would entail much higher operational costs. The operators had another cause to worry as the regulatory bodies had also granted GSM licenses to CDMA oeprators, intensifying the competition further in the GSM space.
The CDMA operators have lambasted the DoT for issuing additional spectrum to the GSM oeprators despite the TEC guidelines. A final decision on the same is expected very soon. Whatever the outcome, one thing remains for sure: A positive decision will rub off quite positively on the concerned segment.
Coming over to the stock market, I'm quite intrigued with the idea of hedging and gaining in the short-term. If I were to benefit from the decision on the spectrum allocation, I would put my money in Airtel (a GSM operator) and Reliance Communications (RCOM; a CDMA operator). A favorabel decision would lead to a surge of Rs. 50 - Rs. 100 in the stock prices of either of these companies.
Both companies have a lot to offer and I expect a sustained enhancement in shareholder value over the course of 2007. Some of the reasons to consider investing in these stocks are listed below:
1) Bharti Airtel: A subscriber base of 51 million customers and the company continues to add 2 million customers every month. Despite the average cost per user continues to decline for all operators, the company has been able to grow, effectively managing its operating expenses and boosting its net profit margin. Additionally, seven international investors, including Temasek and Goldman Sachs, have agreed to buy a 9% stake in Bharti Airtel's tower arm for a total $1 billion. This news has worked well for the stock; expect the stock to trade higher in the next few sessions. Airtel is also planning to launch its $200 million operation in Sri Lanka early next year. I expect all these factors to work in Airtel's favor, with the stock set to achieve a price of Rs. 1300/- in the coming few months.
2) Reliance Communications: Having established itself as a dominant player in the CDMA segment, RCOM is all set to take the GSM segment by storm when the company will launch its GSM operations in 2008. The company is also planning to introduce a net-enabled phone at only Rs. 480/- per handset. This marks a steep discount to the currently available internet browsing phones at a cost of Rs. 1,400/-! The company intends to place an initial order for 12 million handsets. It will target the 600 million rural population and sell around 1 million pieces a year in the rural and semi-urban areas. The company is also looking at roping in the labour ministry that is looking at digitisation of communication technology and making mobile phones affordable to farmers.
Reliance Communications is looking to expand its tower business to take on the mega tower company created by the big three GSM players of the Indian mobile market. For this purpose Anil Ambani's tower company seems to be targeting an unlikely partner, the state owned telecom giant Bharat Sanchar Nigam Limited (BSNL). The company had earlier invited bids from private players for taking towers on rent but this venture will be different as towers will be shared on a reciprocal basis. Reliance tower infrastructure limited has about 17,000 towers while BSNL has about 36,000 towers putting their total tower strength at 53,000 towers. Both of them are not very far from the 70,000 towers under Indus tower, the joint venture tower company of Bharti Airtel, Vodafone and Idea. All these factors combined should push the share price of RCOM in the Rs. 850 - Rs. 900 range!
I advise investment in both these stocks in order to benefir from the boom in the telecom industry which we are likely to witness in 2008! Wishing you all a Happy New Year! Play safe and party hard!!
The CDMA operators have lambasted the DoT for issuing additional spectrum to the GSM oeprators despite the TEC guidelines. A final decision on the same is expected very soon. Whatever the outcome, one thing remains for sure: A positive decision will rub off quite positively on the concerned segment.
Coming over to the stock market, I'm quite intrigued with the idea of hedging and gaining in the short-term. If I were to benefit from the decision on the spectrum allocation, I would put my money in Airtel (a GSM operator) and Reliance Communications (RCOM; a CDMA operator). A favorabel decision would lead to a surge of Rs. 50 - Rs. 100 in the stock prices of either of these companies.
Both companies have a lot to offer and I expect a sustained enhancement in shareholder value over the course of 2007. Some of the reasons to consider investing in these stocks are listed below:
1) Bharti Airtel: A subscriber base of 51 million customers and the company continues to add 2 million customers every month. Despite the average cost per user continues to decline for all operators, the company has been able to grow, effectively managing its operating expenses and boosting its net profit margin. Additionally, seven international investors, including Temasek and Goldman Sachs, have agreed to buy a 9% stake in Bharti Airtel's tower arm for a total $1 billion. This news has worked well for the stock; expect the stock to trade higher in the next few sessions. Airtel is also planning to launch its $200 million operation in Sri Lanka early next year. I expect all these factors to work in Airtel's favor, with the stock set to achieve a price of Rs. 1300/- in the coming few months.
2) Reliance Communications: Having established itself as a dominant player in the CDMA segment, RCOM is all set to take the GSM segment by storm when the company will launch its GSM operations in 2008. The company is also planning to introduce a net-enabled phone at only Rs. 480/- per handset. This marks a steep discount to the currently available internet browsing phones at a cost of Rs. 1,400/-! The company intends to place an initial order for 12 million handsets. It will target the 600 million rural population and sell around 1 million pieces a year in the rural and semi-urban areas. The company is also looking at roping in the labour ministry that is looking at digitisation of communication technology and making mobile phones affordable to farmers.
Reliance Communications is looking to expand its tower business to take on the mega tower company created by the big three GSM players of the Indian mobile market. For this purpose Anil Ambani's tower company seems to be targeting an unlikely partner, the state owned telecom giant Bharat Sanchar Nigam Limited (BSNL). The company had earlier invited bids from private players for taking towers on rent but this venture will be different as towers will be shared on a reciprocal basis. Reliance tower infrastructure limited has about 17,000 towers while BSNL has about 36,000 towers putting their total tower strength at 53,000 towers. Both of them are not very far from the 70,000 towers under Indus tower, the joint venture tower company of Bharti Airtel, Vodafone and Idea. All these factors combined should push the share price of RCOM in the Rs. 850 - Rs. 900 range!
I advise investment in both these stocks in order to benefir from the boom in the telecom industry which we are likely to witness in 2008! Wishing you all a Happy New Year! Play safe and party hard!!
Saturday, December 29, 2007
The road ahead..
What a memorable year 2007 has been for the markets! The markets have crossed many hurdles and accomplished a few things which even the die hard bulls had not foreseen! The year 2008 should be another exciting year for the markets, with the launch of the second energy/power bourse and launch of the mini-derivatives segment. Both these launches are expected to take place in the first month of the coming year itself.
Instead of picking out specific stocks for investment, I will stick to pointing my readers' attentions to two groups or clans: Reliance and Tata. Both are multinational companies; there ain't any additional new material which I can write to sing the glories of the Tatas or the Ambanis which hasn't been written and read already!
But 2008 is going to be special for both these groups! With the launch of the Rs. 1 lakh car by the Tatas to the commercial production of oil by Reliance Petroleum, I expect a spate of positive news flow from both groups. It would be safe to say that investment in select companies will reap good dividends and capital appreciation.
I was hopeful of publishing a few research reports before year-end but am thoroughly infected with the lazy feel the season infests you with! Currently curled up in my blanket, listening to music and ready to doze off!
So I'm pushing off to my bed now; for those interested in a detailed analysis of a specific sector, leave a comment on the blog or mail me.. I'll get back to you asap!
Instead of picking out specific stocks for investment, I will stick to pointing my readers' attentions to two groups or clans: Reliance and Tata. Both are multinational companies; there ain't any additional new material which I can write to sing the glories of the Tatas or the Ambanis which hasn't been written and read already!
But 2008 is going to be special for both these groups! With the launch of the Rs. 1 lakh car by the Tatas to the commercial production of oil by Reliance Petroleum, I expect a spate of positive news flow from both groups. It would be safe to say that investment in select companies will reap good dividends and capital appreciation.
I was hopeful of publishing a few research reports before year-end but am thoroughly infected with the lazy feel the season infests you with! Currently curled up in my blanket, listening to music and ready to doze off!
So I'm pushing off to my bed now; for those interested in a detailed analysis of a specific sector, leave a comment on the blog or mail me.. I'll get back to you asap!
Thursday, December 27, 2007
Bhutto's assassination - A jolt from the blue!!
The last few days have seen the markets celebrate XMas and welcome the New Year with some gusto; a sense of false belief, hope and promise had seeped into the investors that the bull run may continue well into the New Year! The market had priced in almost all the macro- and micro economic factors but one thing which the market hadn't bet on was political instability!
The assassination of Benazir Bhutto today @ 6:45 p.m. in Pakistan took the world by surprise. The U.S. government had spent a lot of money and time on reconciling the differences between Bhutto and Musharraf! However, some one sitting somewhere else decided to provide a twist in the tail, a twist that Pakistan least wanted at this moment! The emergency had been lifted only a fortnight ago; however, the assassination of Bhutto casts a lengthy shadow on the Presidential elections due to be held early next year.
I'm not a political writer, hence I'll nnot indulge in the cascading effects her assassination will have on the region's political scenario. But one thing for sure, I don't expect the markets to take the loss lightly! Expect a downward move in the market tomorrow; suddenly everything does not look all that rosy! Gold prices may again start moving northwards for investors will flock to gold to hedge their risks!
In early trades, the Dow Jones was down around 1 percent; expect a heavier correction in the Indian markets! I would expect a 500 point downward move or more when markets open on Friday! It'll be a good time to exit the profitable positions; re-enter the market at slightly lower levels!
The assassination of Benazir Bhutto today @ 6:45 p.m. in Pakistan took the world by surprise. The U.S. government had spent a lot of money and time on reconciling the differences between Bhutto and Musharraf! However, some one sitting somewhere else decided to provide a twist in the tail, a twist that Pakistan least wanted at this moment! The emergency had been lifted only a fortnight ago; however, the assassination of Bhutto casts a lengthy shadow on the Presidential elections due to be held early next year.
I'm not a political writer, hence I'll nnot indulge in the cascading effects her assassination will have on the region's political scenario. But one thing for sure, I don't expect the markets to take the loss lightly! Expect a downward move in the market tomorrow; suddenly everything does not look all that rosy! Gold prices may again start moving northwards for investors will flock to gold to hedge their risks!
In early trades, the Dow Jones was down around 1 percent; expect a heavier correction in the Indian markets! I would expect a 500 point downward move or more when markets open on Friday! It'll be a good time to exit the profitable positions; re-enter the market at slightly lower levels!
A dismal surrender..
What a day one India had on their tour of Australia! Led by their captain, Anil Kumble who turned in a fine spell taking 5 wickets for 84 runs, India did pretty well to shrug off thier first-day overseas tour blues and bundle out Austrlia for a paltry total of 343! Paltry, if you consider the last series where Austrlia walloped Sri Lanka batting first!
Any chances of India gaining a good first innings lead were blown off by some tepid batting and a disciplined bowling performance from the Australia bowlers, led by Stuart Clark! Apart from Ganguly and Tendulkar, no one really seemed interested in fighting it out, though I must say, Laxman was surprised by a brute of a delievery from Lee.
Excuses be damned, where does this leave India? India are left staring at a mammoth 147 run first innings deficit! I don't want to write off India just now but unless Kumble can inspire another breathtaking display of bowling from his young men, Australia seem to be running away with the first Test! Ciaoooo..
Any chances of India gaining a good first innings lead were blown off by some tepid batting and a disciplined bowling performance from the Australia bowlers, led by Stuart Clark! Apart from Ganguly and Tendulkar, no one really seemed interested in fighting it out, though I must say, Laxman was surprised by a brute of a delievery from Lee.
Excuses be damned, where does this leave India? India are left staring at a mammoth 147 run first innings deficit! I don't want to write off India just now but unless Kumble can inspire another breathtaking display of bowling from his young men, Australia seem to be running away with the first Test! Ciaoooo..
The Santa Claus Rally
This is a copy of the article published in today's edition of the Economic Times:
MUMBAI: If you are looking for reasons pointing to the surge in equity markets and can’t find any, well then try an unconventional explanation.
Go back to history, if the last ten years data is to go by, the markets have posted positive returns, or in other words rallied in the last week of every year. Further, FII inflows have also been positive during the same period, contrary to popular belief that they usually stay away from the markets due to holiday season.
The gains in the last week of every year can be called a ‘Santa Claus rally’, though in Wall Street terminology. A Santa Claus rally refers to a jump in the prices of shares in the week between Christmas and New Year. In the US, there are several explanations for this phenomenon. Some of them relate to tax considerations, plain happiness around the street or also the fact that a lot of people are on vacation that week.
There are no definite explanations for such a situation in India but there has been a rise in the markets between Christmas and New Year every year since 1997. Data to study this phenomenon in India was available since 1997 only as prior to that the markets remain closed the week after Christmas.
The highest gains during the same period were posted by Sensex in 2003, which is 3.5%. Similarly, the highest net FII inflow also has been during the same year. However, data suggests that this not due to FII inflow alone as even though in 2006, the net FII position was negative, the markets gave a return of 2.3% during the same period. For the past four years, markets have gained handsomely during the same period, followed by strong FII inflows (expect 2006).
Even if we go by today's market movement, Sensex surged 3.6% to close at 19,854 points, which could be a precursor to the rally over the next few days. The provisional FII data stood at Rs 176 crores, according to NSE provisional figures. It is to be seen whether in percentage terms, Indian equity markets are able to see its best rally this time. In the same period last year, the Santa Claus rally raised the market by 2.3%.
Many analysts believe that the rise during such a period is more in anticipation of a strong performance in the early months of the new year as it is believed that there is always a lot of action in the period surrounding the budget. They also attribute this rise to beginning of the pre-budget rally.
MUMBAI: If you are looking for reasons pointing to the surge in equity markets and can’t find any, well then try an unconventional explanation.
Go back to history, if the last ten years data is to go by, the markets have posted positive returns, or in other words rallied in the last week of every year. Further, FII inflows have also been positive during the same period, contrary to popular belief that they usually stay away from the markets due to holiday season.
The gains in the last week of every year can be called a ‘Santa Claus rally’, though in Wall Street terminology. A Santa Claus rally refers to a jump in the prices of shares in the week between Christmas and New Year. In the US, there are several explanations for this phenomenon. Some of them relate to tax considerations, plain happiness around the street or also the fact that a lot of people are on vacation that week.
There are no definite explanations for such a situation in India but there has been a rise in the markets between Christmas and New Year every year since 1997. Data to study this phenomenon in India was available since 1997 only as prior to that the markets remain closed the week after Christmas.
The highest gains during the same period were posted by Sensex in 2003, which is 3.5%. Similarly, the highest net FII inflow also has been during the same year. However, data suggests that this not due to FII inflow alone as even though in 2006, the net FII position was negative, the markets gave a return of 2.3% during the same period. For the past four years, markets have gained handsomely during the same period, followed by strong FII inflows (expect 2006).
Even if we go by today's market movement, Sensex surged 3.6% to close at 19,854 points, which could be a precursor to the rally over the next few days. The provisional FII data stood at Rs 176 crores, according to NSE provisional figures. It is to be seen whether in percentage terms, Indian equity markets are able to see its best rally this time. In the same period last year, the Santa Claus rally raised the market by 2.3%.
Many analysts believe that the rise during such a period is more in anticipation of a strong performance in the early months of the new year as it is believed that there is always a lot of action in the period surrounding the budget. They also attribute this rise to beginning of the pre-budget rally.
Subprime meltdown
The term "Subprime meltdown" refers to a financial crisis that arose in the mortgage market after a sharp increase in mortgage foreclosures, mainly subprime, collapsed numerous mortgage lenders and hedge funds.
The meltdown spilled over into the global credit market as risk premiums increased rapidly and capital liquidity was reduced. The sharp increase in foreclosures and the problems in the subprime mortgage market were largely blamed on loose lending practices, low interest rates, a housing bubble and excessive risk taking by lenders and investors.
It is also known as the "subprime collapse" or "subprime crisis".
Following the tech bubble and the events of September 11, the Federal Reserve stimulated a struggling economy by cutting interest rates to historically low levels. As a result, a housing bull market was created. People with poor credit got
in on the action when mortgage lenders created non-traditional mortgages: interest-only loans, payment-option ARMs and mortgages with extended amortization periods. Eventually, interest rates climbed back up and many subprime borrowers defaulted when their mortgages were reset to much higher monthly payments. This left mortgage lenders with property that was worth less than the loan value due to a weakening
housing market. Defaults increased; the problem snowballed, and several lenders went bankrupt.
Investors and hedge funds also suffered because lenders sold mortgages they originated into the secondary market. Here the mortgages were bundled together and sold to investors as collateralized debt obligations (CDOs) and other mortgage-backed
securities (MBSs). When the higher risk underlying mortgages started to default, investors were left with properties that were quickly losing value. In the wake of the meltdown, central banks released liquidity into the market place, which allowed
struggling lenders and hedge funds to continue operations and make the necessary payments on their obligations.
The meltdown spilled over into the global credit market as risk premiums increased rapidly and capital liquidity was reduced. The sharp increase in foreclosures and the problems in the subprime mortgage market were largely blamed on loose lending practices, low interest rates, a housing bubble and excessive risk taking by lenders and investors.
It is also known as the "subprime collapse" or "subprime crisis".
Following the tech bubble and the events of September 11, the Federal Reserve stimulated a struggling economy by cutting interest rates to historically low levels. As a result, a housing bull market was created. People with poor credit got
in on the action when mortgage lenders created non-traditional mortgages: interest-only loans, payment-option ARMs and mortgages with extended amortization periods. Eventually, interest rates climbed back up and many subprime borrowers defaulted when their mortgages were reset to much higher monthly payments. This left mortgage lenders with property that was worth less than the loan value due to a weakening
housing market. Defaults increased; the problem snowballed, and several lenders went bankrupt.
Investors and hedge funds also suffered because lenders sold mortgages they originated into the secondary market. Here the mortgages were bundled together and sold to investors as collateralized debt obligations (CDOs) and other mortgage-backed
securities (MBSs). When the higher risk underlying mortgages started to default, investors were left with properties that were quickly losing value. In the wake of the meltdown, central banks released liquidity into the market place, which allowed
struggling lenders and hedge funds to continue operations and make the necessary payments on their obligations.
Wednesday, December 26, 2007
A Punter's Game..
Merry XMas to all my readers! I welcome you all to my latest post! It's a bright, sunny day here and what a gripping match going on between India and Australia at the moment! I like this type of hard-fought matches; I hope India can continue with their determination to fight the Aussies like they have done in the day so far!
Seems like a punter's game at the moment in the market; just been informed that the January Nifty futures are seeing a good roll over with pretty high premiums! The bulls might be gearing up for another run in 2008; atleast for the first month! Some may attribute the rise in the stock markets at the beginning of a year to the January effect.
January effect may be defined as a general increase in stock prices during the month of January. This rally is generally attributed to an increase in buying, which follows the drop in price that typically happens in December when investors, seeking to create tax losses to offset capital gains, prompt a sell-off. The January effect is said to affect small caps more than mid/large caps. This historical trend, however, has been less pronounced in recent years because the markets have adjusted for it. Another reason the January effect is now considered less important is that more people are using tax-sheltered retirement plans and therefore have no reason to sell at the end of the year for a tax loss.
Whichever way the market goes, it sure makes for an interesting watch! Because you got to time your exits and entry very carefully and if lady luck is with you, then, you, my dear punter, might have just won a lottery!!
Hang on people, kyunki picture abhi baki hai!! And just as I wrote this, our dear captain, Anil Kumbe, snacthed yet another Australian wicket, Andrew Symonds! This is the third wicket to fall in the post-tea session and India might be fancying their chances of polishing off the Australian tail quickly! All this seemed highly unlikely when Australia put up an opening stand of 135 but kudos to Kumble and his bowlers for not letting up! May the Indians maintain their intensity!
Seems like a punter's game at the moment in the market; just been informed that the January Nifty futures are seeing a good roll over with pretty high premiums! The bulls might be gearing up for another run in 2008; atleast for the first month! Some may attribute the rise in the stock markets at the beginning of a year to the January effect.
January effect may be defined as a general increase in stock prices during the month of January. This rally is generally attributed to an increase in buying, which follows the drop in price that typically happens in December when investors, seeking to create tax losses to offset capital gains, prompt a sell-off. The January effect is said to affect small caps more than mid/large caps. This historical trend, however, has been less pronounced in recent years because the markets have adjusted for it. Another reason the January effect is now considered less important is that more people are using tax-sheltered retirement plans and therefore have no reason to sell at the end of the year for a tax loss.
Whichever way the market goes, it sure makes for an interesting watch! Because you got to time your exits and entry very carefully and if lady luck is with you, then, you, my dear punter, might have just won a lottery!!
Hang on people, kyunki picture abhi baki hai!! And just as I wrote this, our dear captain, Anil Kumbe, snacthed yet another Australian wicket, Andrew Symonds! This is the third wicket to fall in the post-tea session and India might be fancying their chances of polishing off the Australian tail quickly! All this seemed highly unlikely when Australia put up an opening stand of 135 but kudos to Kumble and his bowlers for not letting up! May the Indians maintain their intensity!
Saturday, December 22, 2007
21,500 - A new high in sight??
As the year 2007 draws to a close, the bulls are again seen betting on the sensex having a minirun and crossing the lifetime high it achieved earlier this month! The U.S. markets have been buoyed by the infusion of capital and strong fourth earnings to-date. Add to it the lower than expected inflation figure and better employment data and suddenly, everything does not seem all that bad, does it??
The air suddenlly has a merry nip to it, there is a spring in everyone's steps and hopes in their hearts that maybe, just maybe the Sensex is gearing up for another shot, another strong rally, to prove all pundits wrong and touch new highs!! The technical analysts all seem pretty united on the fact and have a range of targets that the Nifty can achieve in the short-run!
Maybe merry days are here again, maybe Santa has heard everyone's prayers and decided to answer some too!!!! Maybe, just maybe, we are gonna see some lights at the end of this year, maybe some of us are in for a lovely XMas gift too!!
Sorry guys (yes gals, I'm a bit of a chauvinistic pig!!), sorry for including so many "maybe"s .. But believe me, based on some pretty strong earning reports and the seasonal sentiment, expect the sensex to stage a small comeback in the near-term! N you long-term investors, just stick in dudes!! The Indian markets have a very bright future ahead!! Wishing you all a lovely time ahead!!
The air suddenlly has a merry nip to it, there is a spring in everyone's steps and hopes in their hearts that maybe, just maybe the Sensex is gearing up for another shot, another strong rally, to prove all pundits wrong and touch new highs!! The technical analysts all seem pretty united on the fact and have a range of targets that the Nifty can achieve in the short-run!
Maybe merry days are here again, maybe Santa has heard everyone's prayers and decided to answer some too!!!! Maybe, just maybe, we are gonna see some lights at the end of this year, maybe some of us are in for a lovely XMas gift too!!
Sorry guys (yes gals, I'm a bit of a chauvinistic pig!!), sorry for including so many "maybe"s .. But believe me, based on some pretty strong earning reports and the seasonal sentiment, expect the sensex to stage a small comeback in the near-term! N you long-term investors, just stick in dudes!! The Indian markets have a very bright future ahead!! Wishing you all a lovely time ahead!!
Friday, December 21, 2007
Good times ahead??
A pretty bruising week for the Indian markets, just ahead of the festive season -- The season of joy, cakes, pastries and lights!! Oh well, me being the foodie that I'm, I just can't wait for XMas to arrive! I love to take a walk down the beautifully lit Park St area and tuck into some lovingly baked cakes and pastries at Flury's! Of course, these days you are bombarded with ads for different parties being organized at different places, with all promising a different theme and of course, plenty of Bolly celebs, TV stars and some firangi dancers imported from some godforesaken place!!
Anyways, coming to the markets, the U.S. marekts are still pretty skittish but are showing signs of some positive momentum just ahead of year-end! The market has been boosted by some strong earning reports while soaking up the negative impact from the write-downs reported by Bear Stearns and Morgan Stanley. Morgan Stanley, in turn, has been boosted by a $5 billion investment from a Chinese firm.. All in all, the U.S. markets seem poised to forget the underlying worries for a while and give the investors something to smile about in this merry season!
Taking their cues from the U.S. markets, even the European and the Asian markets seem to be recovering lost ground! The Indian market should, therefore, witness some strong momentum when it reopens on Monday, December 24. Don't get swayed by the market movement, the underlying fundamentals still seem jittery! Booking your profits (for short-term investors) and exiting the market at this stage is likely going to be the best scenario in the near future. The Sensex is also going to be rangebound in the 18k-20.5k mark!
Finally, I feel like kicking the posterior of Orient Hotels for coming out with such a stinking reason (" Our image in the U.S. will be tarnished") for not forming an alliance with the Tata chain of hotels!! Oh well, the Orient group be damned, we Indians will conquer the world pretty soon! Those who want to join us are WELCOME to do so, those who don't, well we wish them the best of luck! We have nothing against our comeptitors; they know what they are worth!
Speaking of Welcome, it's the fourth movie this year after Namastey London, Heyy Baby and Bhool Bhulaiya starring Akshay Kumar in the lead! The promos look ok ok but hey the movie has got Aki baby and we all know the magic he can spin!! Besides, I'm sure Paresh Rawal, Anil Kapoor and Nana Patekar together will be able to tickle a few of our funny bones! Can't say much for the rest of the cast; I hope to catch this movie in the coming weekend (High hopes!! :-( ) .. You too go ahead and welcome the festive season in your homes!
Wishing you all a Merry XMas and a Happy New Year ahead!! Forget your fitness worries and calories intake for a while, go ahead and gorge on the yummy food, the pastries, cakes, cakes and some more pastries!! N oh, Don't forget to down everything down with a steaming cup of coffee, shared with your friends and family!!
Anyways, coming to the markets, the U.S. marekts are still pretty skittish but are showing signs of some positive momentum just ahead of year-end! The market has been boosted by some strong earning reports while soaking up the negative impact from the write-downs reported by Bear Stearns and Morgan Stanley. Morgan Stanley, in turn, has been boosted by a $5 billion investment from a Chinese firm.. All in all, the U.S. markets seem poised to forget the underlying worries for a while and give the investors something to smile about in this merry season!
Taking their cues from the U.S. markets, even the European and the Asian markets seem to be recovering lost ground! The Indian market should, therefore, witness some strong momentum when it reopens on Monday, December 24. Don't get swayed by the market movement, the underlying fundamentals still seem jittery! Booking your profits (for short-term investors) and exiting the market at this stage is likely going to be the best scenario in the near future. The Sensex is also going to be rangebound in the 18k-20.5k mark!
Finally, I feel like kicking the posterior of Orient Hotels for coming out with such a stinking reason (" Our image in the U.S. will be tarnished") for not forming an alliance with the Tata chain of hotels!! Oh well, the Orient group be damned, we Indians will conquer the world pretty soon! Those who want to join us are WELCOME to do so, those who don't, well we wish them the best of luck! We have nothing against our comeptitors; they know what they are worth!
Speaking of Welcome, it's the fourth movie this year after Namastey London, Heyy Baby and Bhool Bhulaiya starring Akshay Kumar in the lead! The promos look ok ok but hey the movie has got Aki baby and we all know the magic he can spin!! Besides, I'm sure Paresh Rawal, Anil Kapoor and Nana Patekar together will be able to tickle a few of our funny bones! Can't say much for the rest of the cast; I hope to catch this movie in the coming weekend (High hopes!! :-( ) .. You too go ahead and welcome the festive season in your homes!
Wishing you all a Merry XMas and a Happy New Year ahead!! Forget your fitness worries and calories intake for a while, go ahead and gorge on the yummy food, the pastries, cakes, cakes and some more pastries!! N oh, Don't forget to down everything down with a steaming cup of coffee, shared with your friends and family!!
Wednesday, December 19, 2007
EXIT --- Danger looming ahead!
A post after a very long time:
In between the lack of any posts, a whole lot of events have been taking place in the market: the rate cuts, the loan issues, the global sentiments, high inflation figures -- to list just a few!
Starting with the rate cut, this was the third time that the Fed has cut the rate in the last 4 months! These rate cuts are worrying in the sense that the Fed believes that the problem is running deeper than the market realises and hence, the official body has to step in to prevent the markets from tumbling!
In the last two days, the markets have had a breather with both the Fed and the European Central Bank announcing major loan issuances! The loan issues will provide the commercial and private banks with a bit of a breather because they have been in a tight spot due to the recent subprime crisis.
However, both the above moves suggest that the regulatory bodies (not exactly the term I'm looking for to describe the Fed and the ECB) do not have confidence in the marekt's ability to handle this crisis on its own without external assistance. Is there something these higher bodies know that has not come to light yet? Are we left to deal with more blows? How hard a hit can the markets take? Is a recessionary period a real possiblity, just looming around the corner? Above all, what will be the resultant effect on the Indian markets?
The Sensex has hit a big hurdle.. Markets are rarely moving up and continue to exhibit a high degree of negative volatility (is such a thing possible?? Can volatility ever be negative?? Well, I know it can't be but I use it because it sounds nice and tends to get the message across)! Profit booking is rampant and the high annual inflation figure @ 3.75% vs. consensus estimates of 3.46% have done nothing to bolster investor's confidence!
Tough times really for investors! The pundits remain divided, some predicting the markets to touch 18k and the rest expect the Sensex to cross 21k before year-end! I, for sure, am not making any such wild guesses; then again, I got light years to travel before any one calls me a market pundit! Slowly, but surely, I'm booking profits when, where and as possible. Here I'm, signing off, hoping to exit the market with my respect, my savings and my confidence intact!
Funny title, especially since I did not really ask others to press the panic button, did I?? Anyways, I'm always lacking good titles/headings for my posts!
In between the lack of any posts, a whole lot of events have been taking place in the market: the rate cuts, the loan issues, the global sentiments, high inflation figures -- to list just a few!
Starting with the rate cut, this was the third time that the Fed has cut the rate in the last 4 months! These rate cuts are worrying in the sense that the Fed believes that the problem is running deeper than the market realises and hence, the official body has to step in to prevent the markets from tumbling!
In the last two days, the markets have had a breather with both the Fed and the European Central Bank announcing major loan issuances! The loan issues will provide the commercial and private banks with a bit of a breather because they have been in a tight spot due to the recent subprime crisis.
However, both the above moves suggest that the regulatory bodies (not exactly the term I'm looking for to describe the Fed and the ECB) do not have confidence in the marekt's ability to handle this crisis on its own without external assistance. Is there something these higher bodies know that has not come to light yet? Are we left to deal with more blows? How hard a hit can the markets take? Is a recessionary period a real possiblity, just looming around the corner? Above all, what will be the resultant effect on the Indian markets?
The Sensex has hit a big hurdle.. Markets are rarely moving up and continue to exhibit a high degree of negative volatility (is such a thing possible?? Can volatility ever be negative?? Well, I know it can't be but I use it because it sounds nice and tends to get the message across)! Profit booking is rampant and the high annual inflation figure @ 3.75% vs. consensus estimates of 3.46% have done nothing to bolster investor's confidence!
Tough times really for investors! The pundits remain divided, some predicting the markets to touch 18k and the rest expect the Sensex to cross 21k before year-end! I, for sure, am not making any such wild guesses; then again, I got light years to travel before any one calls me a market pundit! Slowly, but surely, I'm booking profits when, where and as possible. Here I'm, signing off, hoping to exit the market with my respect, my savings and my confidence intact!
Funny title, especially since I did not really ask others to press the panic button, did I?? Anyways, I'm always lacking good titles/headings for my posts!
Wednesday, December 12, 2007
Unloving Love
So staring the stars of the night
Being I'm your's and you're mine
Chin me up to face strife of life
On days we both inlove as lovers
I thought to hold us so tight
With your arms reaching me no doubt
To my senses feel nothing compare
But you said, things unlikely change
Your shadow blurring back a strange
I can't even feel you no more
I'm here my love to you remain
How can I make you stay with me
Of me, you're not happy anymore
So I think of us countless times
Ocean of tears falling in my eyes
Day and night I wish to fight
My love for you rain or shine
If I thought I'll change your mind
But our dreams I'll hide and save inside
May your happiness and stars collide
Being I'm your's and you're mine
Chin me up to face strife of life
On days we both inlove as lovers
I thought to hold us so tight
With your arms reaching me no doubt
To my senses feel nothing compare
But you said, things unlikely change
Your shadow blurring back a strange
I can't even feel you no more
I'm here my love to you remain
How can I make you stay with me
Of me, you're not happy anymore
So I think of us countless times
Ocean of tears falling in my eyes
Day and night I wish to fight
My love for you rain or shine
If I thought I'll change your mind
But our dreams I'll hide and save inside
May your happiness and stars collide
Tuesday, December 11, 2007
Expect a 25 bps rate cut today
The Fed meets again today; ahead of the rate cut session, most investors would prefer to play safe. There is a raging debate going on whether the Fed will cut its rate by a quarter or half a point! Clearly, half a point cut would be too good to digest, even in the short term. Realistically speaking, a quarter point cut seems much more likely given the improving scenario.
However, I guess I shouldn't be saying so much! Last time the Fed met to decide on the rate cut, I'd erred on the side of caution! Almost missed the rally that zoomed and broke all records! Hoping for a second such rally would again be too optimistic! The rise of the Sensex hasn't seemed that confident whenever the index has crossed the 20k mark. Again, the first time the rate cuts came as a pleasant surprise; this time around, with almost everyone looking for a cut, the markets will react quite sharply and negatively if the Fed chooses to ignore the investors' sentiments.
On a rather pleasing note, I'm quite happy to see the rebound in the IT stocks! Lets see what tomorrow brings!
However, I guess I shouldn't be saying so much! Last time the Fed met to decide on the rate cut, I'd erred on the side of caution! Almost missed the rally that zoomed and broke all records! Hoping for a second such rally would again be too optimistic! The rise of the Sensex hasn't seemed that confident whenever the index has crossed the 20k mark. Again, the first time the rate cuts came as a pleasant surprise; this time around, with almost everyone looking for a cut, the markets will react quite sharply and negatively if the Fed chooses to ignore the investors' sentiments.
On a rather pleasing note, I'm quite happy to see the rebound in the IT stocks! Lets see what tomorrow brings!
Monday, December 10, 2007
Out of station..
Hey readers,
Sorry for the lack of any posts in recent times.. I've been travelling a fair bit.. Returned last week.. I promise to be back with a vengeance once I have caught up with my pending work.. Till then, please exercise some patience.. Those of you who bought the IT stocks when these sticks were down are in for a rosy time!!
Sorry for the lack of any posts in recent times.. I've been travelling a fair bit.. Returned last week.. I promise to be back with a vengeance once I have caught up with my pending work.. Till then, please exercise some patience.. Those of you who bought the IT stocks when these sticks were down are in for a rosy time!!
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