EXIT --- Danger looming ahead!

A post after a very long time:

In between the lack of any posts, a whole lot of events have been taking place in the market: the rate cuts, the loan issues, the global sentiments, high inflation figures -- to list just a few!

Starting with the rate cut, this was the third time that the Fed has cut the rate in the last 4 months! These rate cuts are worrying in the sense that the Fed believes that the problem is running deeper than the market realises and hence, the official body has to step in to prevent the markets from tumbling!

In the last two days, the markets have had a breather with both the Fed and the European Central Bank announcing major loan issuances! The loan issues will provide the commercial and private banks with a bit of a breather because they have been in a tight spot due to the recent subprime crisis.

However, both the above moves suggest that the regulatory bodies (not exactly the term I'm looking for to describe the Fed and the ECB) do not have confidence in the marekt's ability to handle this crisis on its own without external assistance. Is there something these higher bodies know that has not come to light yet? Are we left to deal with more blows? How hard a hit can the markets take? Is a recessionary period a real possiblity, just looming around the corner? Above all, what will be the resultant effect on the Indian markets?

The Sensex has hit a big hurdle.. Markets are rarely moving up and continue to exhibit a high degree of negative volatility (is such a thing possible?? Can volatility ever be negative?? Well, I know it can't be but I use it because it sounds nice and tends to get the message across)! Profit booking is rampant and the high annual inflation figure @ 3.75% vs. consensus estimates of 3.46% have done nothing to bolster investor's confidence!

Tough times really for investors! The pundits remain divided, some predicting the markets to touch 18k and the rest expect the Sensex to cross 21k before year-end! I, for sure, am not making any such wild guesses; then again, I got light years to travel before any one calls me a market pundit! Slowly, but surely, I'm booking profits when, where and as possible. Here I'm, signing off, hoping to exit the market with my respect, my savings and my confidence intact!

Funny title, especially since I did not really ask others to press the panic button, did I?? Anyways, I'm always lacking good titles/headings for my posts!

Unloving Love

So staring the stars of the night
Being I'm your's and you're mine
Chin me up to face strife of life
On days we both inlove as lovers
I thought to hold us so tight
With your arms reaching me no doubt
To my senses feel nothing compare

But you said, things unlikely change
Your shadow blurring back a strange
I can't even feel you no more
I'm here my love to you remain
How can I make you stay with me
Of me, you're not happy anymore

So I think of us countless times
Ocean of tears falling in my eyes
Day and night I wish to fight
My love for you rain or shine
If I thought I'll change your mind
But our dreams I'll hide and save inside
May your happiness and stars collide

Expect a 25 bps rate cut today

The Fed meets again today; ahead of the rate cut session, most investors would prefer to play safe. There is a raging debate going on whether the Fed will cut its rate by a quarter or half a point! Clearly, half a point cut would be too good to digest, even in the short term. Realistically speaking, a quarter point cut seems much more likely given the improving scenario.

However, I guess I shouldn't be saying so much! Last time the Fed met to decide on the rate cut, I'd erred on the side of caution! Almost missed the rally that zoomed and broke all records! Hoping for a second such rally would again be too optimistic! The rise of the Sensex hasn't seemed that confident whenever the index has crossed the 20k mark. Again, the first time the rate cuts came as a pleasant surprise; this time around, with almost everyone looking for a cut, the markets will react quite sharply and negatively if the Fed chooses to ignore the investors' sentiments.

On a rather pleasing note, I'm quite happy to see the rebound in the IT stocks! Lets see what tomorrow brings!

Out of station..

Hey readers,

Sorry for the lack of any posts in recent times.. I've been travelling a fair bit.. Returned last week.. I promise to be back with a vengeance once I have caught up with my pending work.. Till then, please exercise some patience.. Those of you who bought the IT stocks when these sticks were down are in for a rosy time!!